Former US Ambassador Says Israel Must Prepare for End of Military Aid

Former Israeli ambassador to the United States Michael Oren told 103FM on Monday that Israel must prepare for an immediate end to American military assistance. Oren, who currently serves as deputy minister in the Prime Minister's Office, said President Donald Trump’s announcement to terminate aid moves up the timeline by roughly two years. The original memorandum of understanding between the two nations was set to expire later, but Trump stated the change follows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recommendation.

Oren linked the decision to the current American political climate. He noted that military aid has become a central issue in Democratic campaigns. "This is part of the election campaign," Oren said. He described Trump's announcement as potentially a trial balloon or a bombshell, but stressed that Israel has long needed to plan for such an outcome.

The former ambassador warned that Israel cannot assume it has a decade to transition from receiving aid to forming a strategic partnership. He argued that the timeline is dictated by Washington, not Jerusalem. Oren pointed out that Democrats have previously voted to end military aid in Congress. Such a move could eventually lead to the termination of intelligence assistance and other forms of cooperation between the two countries.

Oren maintained that Israel's strategic value to the United States makes reduced aid illogical. He described Israel as the only ally willing to fight shoulder to shoulder with America. He argued that Israel's technology significantly enhances American security capabilities in a sensitive region. "Who would want to reduce that country's ability to help the Americans and contribute to US security?" he asked.

The discussion also touched on shifting political dynamics in the United States. Oren noted that the Muslim population in key states like Michigan now exceeds the Jewish population. He mentioned that one-third of Jews in New York voted for Zohran Mamdani. He also stated that AIPAC is under scrutiny and is no longer the largest or wealthiest lobby in Washington.

Oren expressed surprise at stopping aid while Israel is engaged in a war. He suggested a more logical arrangement might involve Trump supporting Netanyahu in exchange for a pause in military operations before the midterm elections. He also emphasized the diplomatic role of the United States at the United Nations, referring to American support as a political and diplomatic Iron Dome that can veto sanctions.

Regarding future procurement, Oren warned that replacing American military production with Chinese alternatives would cross a red line for Washington. He recalled meetings with several administrations that told Israel to choose between the US and China. Oren said he initially opposed the current memorandum of understanding due to opportunity costs. He cited years of being denied requests for B-1 or B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles, while being blocked from selling equipment to China.

The next step in this process involves navigating the upcoming midterm elections and the final details of the strategic partnership. Oren continues to advocate for transforming assistance into a partnership rather than ending it outright. The decision will likely face scrutiny from both parties in Congress as the election cycle progresses.