Texas Senate Race Shifted Among Young Voters

Democratic candidates gained ground among young voters and Hispanic voters in the 2026 midterm elections, according to the AP Voter Poll. This shift reversed many of the gains President Donald Trump secured with these groups in the 2024 presidential election. The survey covered more than 100,000 voters across all 50 states.

In 2024, voters under 30 were roughly split between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. By the 2026 midterms, about seven in 10 of these younger voters supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race. Only about three in 10 voted for the Republican. This demographic remains a small share of the electorate, with only about one in 10 national voters under 30.

Hispanic voters also moved toward the Democratic Party. Nationally, about six in 10 Hispanic voters backed the Democratic House candidate, down from the roughly four in 10 who supported Trump in 2024. In the Texas Senate race, Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton. The poll showed that roughly six in 10 Hispanic voters in that race supported Talarico, while only about three in 10 voted for Paxton.

Black voters, particularly Black men, shifted back toward Democrats. About nine in 10 Black voters supported the Democratic House candidate, up from roughly eight in 10 who voted for Harris in 2024. Among Black men, support for the Democratic House candidate was about nine in 10, down from the roughly one-quarter who supported Trump in 2024.

Moderate voters also played a key role in several Senate races. About two-thirds of moderates supported the Democratic House candidate, an increase from the six in 10 who backed Harris in 2024. Many moderates said Congress was not doing enough to check the presidency. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won about seven in 10 moderate voters, a large increase from the half who supported Harris in 2024.

Voters with household incomes under $50,000 also shifted toward Democrats. More than half of these voters chose the Democratic House candidate, whereas they were evenly split between Trump and Harris in 2024. About three in 10 U.S. voters nationally report a family income below $50,000. The poll was conducted from Oct. 19 to Nov. 3 in Alaska and from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 in other states.

The AP Voter Poll is a survey of more than 100,000 voters conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News and Versant. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points.