Midterm results undo redistricting efforts

Democratic candidates won reelection in several Texas and Florida districts that Republican lawmakers had redrawn to favor their party. The results from Tuesday's midterm election show that the new maps did not produce the seat changes Republicans expected. In the Rio Grande Valley, Democratic representatives Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez retained their House seats despite redistricting efforts aimed at flipping their districts.

Republicans in Texas had reconfigured three heavily Latino districts in the Valley to boost their chances. They hoped to unseat Cuellar and Gonzalez. Both Democrats won. A third district, represented by Republican Monica De La Cruz, was sandwiched between their seats. De La Cruz lost to Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido. The AP Voter Poll indicates a shift in Hispanic voting patterns. Nationally, about one-third of Hispanics backed the Republican in their local House race. Roughly four in 10 had voted for Donald Trump in 2024.

The redistricting wave began after President Trump urged Texas Republicans to reshape districts. He sought a GOP edge in the midterm. The effort spread to eight states. In Florida, Democrats retained four seats that Republicans had targeted. Jared Moskowitz won in Florida's 25th Congressional District. Kathy Castor also won reelection in her new district. Pia Dandiya took an open seat in southern Florida that had been reshaped for a Republican advantage. In Alabama, Shomari Figures won reelection despite a map change favored by the state legislature.

Justin Levitt, a professor at Loyola Law School, said it is foolish to assume the electorate stays the same over time. He noted that line-drawers may have become cocky. Eric Holder, chair of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said the Republican plan was systematically dismantled. Voters chose a new Democratic majority. In North Carolina, the race in the 1st Congressional District cost over $50 million in advertising. Don Davis held a slight lead. Greg Murphy faced a close race against Raymond Smith in the 3rd District.

Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said Republicans had unrealistic assumptions about Latino voting. The AP found that about six in 10 people disapprove of Trump's handling of the presidency. This dissatisfaction fueled the Democratic surge. In all but one of the revamped districts, Trump would have carried over 54% of the vote in 2024. However, new voters in many districts changed the dynamic. De La Cruz's new district had about three in five voting-age residents who were new to the area. This made her competition against Pulido more difficult.

Maryland voters approved a constitutional amendment on Tuesday. The change makes it easier for the Democratic-led General Assembly to redraw districts. Democrats in New York have also taken steps toward redistricting before 2028. Levitt said it is tough to pick a political model that accurately predicts who will show up in 2028. The next presidential election will be the first in a decade without Trump's name on the ballot. This makes it hard to know how his supporters will realign behind new candidates.