Goldknopf and Bennett could decide Israel's next coalition

Political assessments circulating in Israel suggest that the next government may depend on the decisions of Yitzhak Goldknopf and Naftali Bennett.

Goldknopf leads Agudat Yisrael, a Haredi faction that holds three seats in the Knesset. Reports indicate his party could support a government led by the opposition in exchange for specific budgetary agreements. This potential deal remains theoretical, as it would not automatically eliminate the need for votes from Arab parties to reach a governing majority.

The idea of cooperation between Agudat Yisrael and the opposition bloc is not new. Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring fresh options, including working with Gadi Eisenkot. These talks emerged from internal friction within United Torah Judaism. Disagreements centered on the Haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando recently expressed reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Likud-led bloc, adding uncertainty to the Haredi alliance.

Goldknopf faces a hurdle because his voter base largely identifies with the Right. Analysts warn that any visible support for a change-bloc government could push some supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit.

Attention is also turning to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither the current government nor the opposition secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, Bennett could be the deciding factor. One scenario suggests he might join a Netanyahu-led government. This is considered a remote possibility, but some believe Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc with the right-wing background to take such a step.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential decider. He previously served as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. However, current assessments suggest he is far from making a similar move due to personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister.

These scenarios remain assessments rather than formal agreements. The question of which politician will be willing to shift their political base will likely become central to coalition negotiations.