Israel Heads to the Polls

Polling stations opened across Israel at 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday.

Citizens cast ballots in the first Knesset election since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The race pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his current coalition against a loose opposition group. Neither side currently holds a projected majority.

The political environment has changed since the previous vote in 2022. Three years of war have shaped the platform for this cycle. The previous election occurred before the major conflict and the subsequent shifts in public opinion.

Voting at diplomatic missions abroad ended on October 16. Military bases began casting ballots earlier in the week. The main voting day concludes with exit polls released at 10:00 p.m. Official results will be finalized in the days following the count.

The final Channel 12 poll released on Friday provides the latest numerical projections. Netanyahu's bloc is projected to win 50 seats. The opposition bloc is projected to win 56 seats. Arab parties are projected to secure a combined 16 seats.

A majority in the 120-seat Knesset requires 61 seats. No single bloc has reached that number in recent surveys. This gap leaves both sides dependent on external support or internal realignments.

Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads the opposition in the polls. It is projected to win 22 seats. This number exceeds the projection for Netanyahu's Likud party, which stands at 19 seats. Likud currently holds 32 seats in the outgoing legislature. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad party is projected to win 14 seats.

Key issues driving voter decisions include the IDF manpower crisis and the haredi draft law. Many voters want a state commission to investigate the government's performance on October 7. The traditional debate over a Palestinian state has receded as most parties now agree against immediate statehood.

The electoral threshold requires a party to secure 3.25% of valid votes to enter the Knesset. The exact number of votes needed depends on total turnout. Prof. Alex Weinreb of the Taub Center estimates that at a 70% turnout rate, a party needs 165,635 votes to cross the line. Higher turnout increases the required vote count, making it harder for small parties to qualify.

Several minor parties are fighting to clear this threshold. These include Ofer Winter's People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists-Economics party. Whether these groups gain representation will affect the math for coalition building.

Police deployed approximately 20,000 officers and volunteers for the day. Forces are stationed at polling stations and surrounding areas to maintain order. Authorities stated these measures are designed to protect the democratic process and ensure the election is conducted according to law.