Likud Members Split on Netanyahu's Standing Ahead of Tuesday Israeli Vote

Israeli voters go to the polls Tuesday, and people inside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party disagree about how the contest will land. One Likud source said some members are confident of victory while others worry that turnout operations aimed at voters opposed to Netanyahu will hurt the party.

Those expressing confidence point to internal polling run by Shlomo Filber. "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so," the source said of party members' views. On Filber's projections, the source said: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

Party sources said organizations and nonprofits have directed large sums toward getting out the vote in the camp opposed to Netanyahu. They described a campaign that ran throughout the election period without direct funding from the parties, covering social media, signs, field events, rides for Arab voters and efforts to bring Israelis living abroad home to vote. One source called it "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing the groups give parties opposed to Netanyahu a support network outside party-financing rules. The sources offered no documentation for the funding amounts they cited or for the claim that the activity was illegal.

Likud also said the Central Elections Committee concentrated on enforcing limits on campaign videos and on the use of public resources while paying too little attention to the organizations' work.

The party is preparing a ground operation for Election Day despite restrictions on obtaining information from polling stations, and is working to keep right-wing votes from moving to smaller slates. Attempts to bring Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, who leads the People of Israel party and formerly commanded the Givati Brigade, into leaving the race did not succeed. Talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan were part of that effort, and Sadan afterward issued a statement backing Winter.

Likud has also courted supporters of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party withdrew from the race after discussions with Likud, during which legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister was raised. The election date of October 27 lets Netanyahu's government serve out its full term. A survey published days before the vote found nearly one-third of Israeli voters still undecided.

Vote counting begins after polls close Tuesday. Likud's internal polling operation is run by Shlomo Filber.