42 million ballots cast so far, with Democrats voting early at higher rates

More than 42 million Americans had cast midterm ballots as of Friday, Oct. 30, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, with the early vote count running close to the pace seen in 2018.

Democrats made up 44% of those early votes, compared with about 31% for Republicans, the lab reported. Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, said the U.S. could be headed toward record turnout. "It's possible that we will beat the 2018 turnout rate. That was the highest turnout rate for midterm elections since 1914. But there are uneven patterns of turnout," McDonald said.

McDonald attributed the uneven patterns to party registration. "Registered Democrats, unaffiliated, those people who don't have a party registration, are engaged at the moment. But registered Republicans are not as much," he said.

Early voting among young voters and minority groups has risen this cycle, McDonald said. "Makes me believe that this electorate is going to be the most diverse electorate for a midterm election in U.S. history. We can see high levels of engagement among AfricanAmericans, Hispanics, Asian Americans, but we don't see as much among whites," he said. The model carries limits: some states do not require party registration, and others place little weight on early voting. Maine, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska, for example, may see roughly a third of their ballots cast early, McDonald said.

Democrats hold an early lead in ballots cast, but McDonald said Republicans will gain ground on Election Day. No results will be released until polls close Tuesday, Nov. 3.