42 Million Ballots Are In, and Democrats Lead the Early Count

More than 42 million midterm ballots have been cast across the United States, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. The lab's figures show early turnout running close to the pace recorded in 2018.

Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, said the country could set a new midterm participation mark. "It's possible that we will beat the 2018 turnout rate. That was the highest turnout rate for midterm elections since 1914," he said. He added that the pattern varies across groups.

Democrats account for 44 percent of early votes, compared with about 31 percent for Republicans. McDonald said registered Democrats and voters with no party affiliation are engaged now, while registered Republicans are not moving at the same rate. He also said early voting has risen this cycle among young voters and minorities. "Makes me believe that this electorate is going to be the most diverse electorate for a midterm election in U.S. history," he said, citing participation among African Americans, Hispanics and Asian Americans. He said participation among white voters has not reached the same levels.

McDonald noted limits in his model. Not every state requires party registration, and some states devote little attention to early voting. Maine, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska may see about a third of ballots cast before Election Day, he said, unlike states with heavy mail voting or large in-person early operations.

He expects Republicans to gain ground when polls open on Election Day. No results will be released until voting ends Tuesday, November 3.