UK Cyber Agency Predicts AI-Driven Attack on Infrastructure by 2028

The United Kingdom should expect a cyberattack on its critical national infrastructure powered by artificial intelligence within the next 24 months, according to a statement from the National Cyber Security Centre. The agency, which operates under the GCHQ intelligence body, issued the warning in its annual report and through remarks prepared by its chief executive.

The NCSC stated that a ransomware attack utilizing AI-powered malware is highly likely to target critical infrastructure by 2028. The report further noted that hostile actors will use AI to increase the scale and efficiency of their operations during this period. The agency identified China as the actor most likely to possess the intent and capability to execute such an attack against strategic targets.

Richard Horne, the chief executive of the NCSC, attributed the looming threat to decades of cost-cutting measures in British organizations and supply chains. He described this practice as "doing tech on the cheap," which has left systems vulnerable to exploitation. Horne stated that the agency faces a real prospect of a sharp increase in cyber incidents in the coming months.

Horne clarified that the rise in attacks is not due to AI inventing new methods of intrusion. Instead, he explained that existing vulnerabilities, which were previously tolerated, can now be discovered and exploited at a scale that was once unimaginable. He warned that the increase in incidents is a direct result of the current state of technological infrastructure.

The speech also addressed other national threats. Horne said Russia is making sustained attempts to penetrate UK military networks. He noted that Iran is carrying out malicious cyber operations globally, including against the UK and individuals perceived as threats. China’s activity was described as the most sophisticated and sustained cyber challenge the UK currently faces. Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran have previously denied similar accusations of hostile cyber actions.

The warning follows recent hacking incidents that targeted supermarkets across Europe and exposed weaknesses in IT systems. Horne urged organizations to take urgent action to address these gaps. He stated that if critical services fail in the future, leaders must explain why they saw the warning signs and failed to make the necessary choices.